Monday, December 25, 2006

Infrastructure

'Infrastructure' has been touted as the key driver of economic growth engine of the country. Look at any b-school journal, annual lecture, prime time talk on any business channel, seminars, everybody says India is lagging behind China in terms of provision of world class highways, ports, airports, townships etc. China is going ahead and India is not moving an inch towards the set goals.
No doubt, we are gradually getting rid of our slumber on this front and acting in a concrete manner to build impressive physical infrastructure across the country to enable business to prosper and common man to seek proper care from the service providers across the spectrum of activities.
Despite some progress on infrastructure front, albeit slowly, critics always shout from the rooftops that dragon marching ahead of us, and that it is beyond our capability to meet the benchmarks already set in the arena. Their criticism however is confined to physical infrastructure. China's high rise buildings and classy roadways are undoubtedly making headlines unlike India, where we believe 'slow and steady wins the race'.

My point is that comparisons are always odious. If at all comparison is to be between the two, one has to look at broader picture.
The term infrastructure has to be construed in a holistic manner, to include financial and social infrastructures as well. The latter is not the topic of discussion here.
India's financial infrastructure, as is obtaining today, is something every Indian should be proud of, be it banking, insurance, or financial markets. The services offered by our private banks or modernized PSU banks are at par, if not better, with those of developed countries, be it long term lending or short term provision of working capital requirements, retail banking.
The elaborate securities regulatory regime established by capital markets watchdog SEBI has been largely responsible for the orderly conduct of stock markets, particularly in the last few years. Those who are keeping track of the stock markets will tell how the markets are steered clear of scams (after Ketan Parekh's K-10 fraud, there is hardly any scam to talk about) except periodical episodes of local nature, where the victims erred on the left side of the caution and burnt their fingers. Such misadventures of irrational exuberance on the part of investors shall not be attributed to SEBI. Even the demat scam occurred due to the casual attitude of the depository participants rather than the system's failure.
Well developed derivative markets, both for short term speculation and risk-reduction for genuine traders, has been providing much needed solace in the wake of unprecedented bull run on the share market side.
The dynamic structure of security markets have attained such a stature that it is being emulated by several countries cutting across the continents. Even New York Stock Exchange has been reported to have shown interest in entering into an agreement for information sharing and training with National Stock Exchange and SEBI. Mind you, NYSE is a century plus old institution, whereas NSE is baby in front of NYSE; NSE has very recently celebrated its 12th rising anniversary.
On the financial infrastructure side, China is still at the elementary stage. It has couple of State run banking behemoths of global size, but their functioning is in shambles and the size of Non Performing Assets is alarmingly high.

Back home, there is a lot to be improved on the social infrastructure, be it law & order, elimination of child labour, atrocities against weaker sections, speedy criminal justice dispensation mechanism, etc.

The liberalisation process had remained largely obsessed with the creation of financial infrastructure and freeing up certain sectors for Foreign Direct Investment and results already there to witness; in fact RBI is reported to be burning midnight oil on how to regulate the heating economy. Our desi industrialists, who had vehemently opposed opening up of the economy a decade ago and lobbied vigorously for creation of a level playing field for basic survival, have now acquired such a financial leeway in the wake of liberalisation and globalization that they have started leveraging their assets for acquiring global outfits with enormous ease. One could safely conclude that the growth engine is more or less on the right track to reach a two digits growth rate; that will be a dream come true.

Now it is high time we focused on creation of better infrastructure to sustain the growth momentum, which does not appear to be very difficult, taking into consideration the kind of telecom infrastructure we have been able to put in place in a short period of time, that too largely with the aid of private equity.






Thursday, December 07, 2006

Fag End

A senior colleague of mine was hospitalised last month when he had cardio problem. Apart from his high stress levels, smoking was said to be the culprit for his heart ailment. Before that, he had in fact cut down his smoking by half. But that did not come to his aid.

The other day I came across a newspaper report about a Norwegian study, which found that stubbing out was the only way to cut the risk.
The participants were assessed for cardio vascular risk factors at the start of the study and then monitored for an average period of 20 years. They were categorized in various groups, including non-smokers, moderate smokers (upto 14 a day) and reducers, who smoked more that 15 cigarettes a day, at the start of the study, but who had cut back by more than half.
It is found that smoking just one to four cigarettes a day increased the risk of dying from heart disease dramatically.
Research has further shown that smoking one cigarette a day reduces smoker's life by five minutes.
The age-old suggestion "if you can't get rid of smoking, at least cut down" seems to have lost its relevance health-wise in view of these latest findings.
Smokers! Beware each puff of a fag is playing havoc with your life.
Either you carry on your royal habit of smoking fag after fag, after sumptuous meals or in between without inhibition OR stub it out completely.

Saturday, December 02, 2006

Exodus

After watching Sholay movie in the afternoon last Sunday, we sat down chitchatting. Didi was telling about a young girl in the neighbourhood. The girl, in her early twenties, started her career in IT sector couple of years ago and on her dad's birthday, this summer, she gifted him a brand new Indigo diesel car. She downpaid fifty percent and for the rest she took a loan, which she is required to pay back in EMIs. Besides, she is considering purchase of a two bed room flat in the vicinity, where prices of two bed flats are upwards 25 lakhs.
Owning a house, buying a car used to be on the middle class working people's 'wishlist' for fulfillment towards the fag end of their working career. The girls story might appear amazing if one is not well connected with what is happening on the job market front, especially in IT and IT enabled sectors like BPO, KPO etc, where avenues are opened for skilled people with huge pay packages.
Earning in five figures is no longer an attractive proposition. To be a decent figure, it needs to be either touching six figure or in multiples. Few days back my niece called up to say, "Uncle, my hubby got a hike in salary'. Without pause she continues, 'why don't you ask how much'. I said 'how much'. 'He got a hike of Rs.25,000'. She did not stop there. She continued "Initially, they proposed a hike of 40%, but later they gave only 30% and promised to increase it further by 30% from the next financial year'.

Lo! This is reported to be beginning. Around IT islands, be it Bangaluru, Chennai, Cyberabad (Hyderabad), Delhi's suburbs Gurgaon, Noida, new millionaires are popping up on round the clock basis. Fat pay packages are slowly becoming norm in some of the private companies.
Traditional professions like medicine, teaching, accountancy, public services etc are looking unremunerative vis-a-vis jobs in IT and some of the private sector jobs.
The impact of IT sector and their pals on traditional sectors is telling. A relative of mine resigned her so called high paid job in a PSU Bank to join a leading IT company at four times pay. My friend DN Chowdhury, after putting in 12 years in IRS , called it a day recently and proceeded to pursue post graduate course in law from an Ivy League University. Thereafter, he will either open up his own outfit or join a corporate law firm.

It is reported that a senior IAS officer of UT cadre has recently put in his papers to join real estate major, DLF. You know how much is the annual pay in the company: Rs.1.75 crores. He will earn in 15 days what he had been drawing in a full year from the government.

TRAI has turned out to be a good poaching ground for private telecom players. By paying three to six times the compensation that staff who work with the telecom regulator earn, they are drawing best of talent from it.
At our desi aviation giant Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd, 370 topline engineers have quit this year alone, over 1000 in the last three years. Private players are offering huge salaries. An engineer getting Rs.5 lakhs a year lured away by a Rs.12 lakh package.

The momentum is picking up, though the pace is yet to reach alarming proportions. If the traditional sectors wont wake up to the market realities, sun rise sector will draw away the talented from their areas. Izzat and satisfaction can hold on for some time, but majority of the talent will be lured towards the honeybee eventually.

During his second term President elections, Bill Clinton's main slogan was "It's economy, stupid!'. It is believed that he won elections on the strength of his performance in the area of economy and by highlighting it. Similarly, if traditional fields want to hold the brightest and capture the brilliant, they have to pull up their socks and act fast.
Seeking 'level playing field' would not yield dividends. Initiatives like job enrichment, job enlargement coupled with better HR practices may not be of much help, unless pay package are suitably structured in line with the market-driven economic paradigm.

Friday, December 01, 2006

Jai Kissan

'Economy on a roll', GDP growth current Quarter is 9.2% compared to last Quarter's 8.4, Manufacturing growth at 11.9 compared to last quarter's 8.1.' These are the headlines CNBC carrying last night. What caught my attention is the slowing agriculture growth at 1.7 compared to last quarter's 4.0. A significant deceleration over a period of one year. It is the pundits belief that Quarter 2 is always leaner due to the peculiar crop patterns in the Indian sub-continent. But empirical data does not support such a view.
Every sector on the radar is rocking with significant growth rates, heating up the overall growth rate in the Indian economy, barring agriculture production. If the production growth rate lies low, it has the potential to rock the 'economy on a roll' boat. Already we are witnessing price hike on cereals front, which may spread to foogdgrains soon, leading to further rise in the inflation.
One thing is apparent. Agriculture's priority in society is on a downward spiral. Reasons are not far to seek.
Agriculture as a profession is at the bottom of the pyramid. It is taken up only when one fails in other areas.
Entrepreneurial spirit is catching up among today's youth, albeit gradually. Everyone is on the move to try their luck in every conceivable field of activity except farming. One reason is that the returns are not commensurate with the efforts and it does not need high level skills or talent.
Being from agriculture family, I know for sure how much farming lost its sheen. My generation has abandoned it completely.
I don't wish to propose that every brilliant student shall consider taking up farming as a way of life.
Free power, exempting agriculture income from IT net and exempting farm products from VAT, definitely have their advantages in reducing the risks (both man-made & natural)obtaining in the farming. They are monetary incentives to those who are already into it..But these measures alone cannot bring the talented and skilled young people to the profession of farming as a traditionally sought-after and rewarding profession.
The gap between the price paid by the consumer and what producer gets, needs to be brought to reasonabe levels. Indian tobacco major, ITC's e-choupal has unleashed a project to outsource thier foodgrains directly from the hinterland eliminating the role of middleman. More projects on these lines will go a long way in improving the bottomline of farmers.

The need of the hour is to infuse pride in the profession of farming.
A profession thrives on the kind of recognition members of that profession receive from the society. Time has come to follow the slogan pronounced by former Prime Minster Late Shri Lal Bahadur Sastri:
'Jai Jawan, Jai Kissan'

Tuesday, November 28, 2006

It's yours

The day after lunch is bright and sunny. I am standing outside the clinic looking at the traffic moving on the road across. A pregnant woman (roughly 20 years old and expecting in a month or so) along with her aunt comes down slowly towards the clinic. Her aunt assisting her to climb the steps, when she finds it difficult to climb on her own. She is looking weak but her
innocent smile is sprinkled all over her jovial face. Her aunt asks the receptionist for doctor. Dr Veeranna, who happens to be my dad's schoolmate, has gone next-door home little while ago after treating my mom.
She says her pregnant girl needs to be treated immediately as she has been suffering from stomach ache since morning. A word is sent. Doctor comes and treats her and prescribes some tablets and IV fluids. Her aunt goes to the chemist, who prepares a bill of Rs.400, out of which cost of IV fluids are almost 280 bucks.
she comes back and tells Dr Veeranna that she is carrying only Rs.200 and can't procure all the medicines and she will tell her husband, who is 10 kms away in the fields, to get the money required, which may take some time. Doctor says 'don't worry, take my reference and get the medicines from the chemist first, we can pay later. If the chemist does not budge, come and take money from me'.
she comes back with the prescribed medicines. In the meanwhile, the pregnant girl looking at the situation, wants to make a call to her hubby from the public coin-phone put up in the precincts of the clinic. She does not have a one rupee coin. Standing nearby, I give her a coin on my own. She dials a number and summons her hubby to the clinic.
The girl is injected the IV fluids and within a couple of hours, she is back to her normal self, a charming and gushing personality indeed. Her hubby and uncle come to the clinic hurriedly to find her in fine fettle.
She looks at me and comes nearer to return one rupee coin.
She says smilingly "it's yours, thanks".